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Gold Canyon Mortgage Blog
By Debbie Patella at
Sales of new single-family houses in the United States jumped 16.9 percent from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 657 thousand in November of 2018. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) gained +47 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move lower compared to the previous week. Government Shutdown Showdown: President Trump reached an agreement with the Democratic leadership and announced that he would agree to temporarily reopening the government for only 3 weeks and back pay would be going to government employees very quickly. Whether the 3 weeks turns into longer depends on the works of a new commission that is required to be formed as part of this deal to review all the data and proposals from agencies involved in border security. If the works of this commission lead to a new homeland security budget/bill that does include enhanced (wall) security then most likely the government will remain open past the three week period. But if not, it could be another shutdown ahead. The Talking Fed: The FOMC kept their key interest rate unchanged in the 2.25% to 2.50% range. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Big Jobs Friday is here. Lets look at the Tale of the Tape! |
What to Watch Out For This Week: ![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Donating a house comes with a bunch of benefits not only to the charity of your choice, but to you, too. Here are the main ones to consider:
What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) lost just 3 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move sideways compared to the previous week. Government Shutdown Showdown: President Trump reached an agreement with the Democratic leadership and announced that he would agree to temporarily reopening the government for only 3 weeks and back pay would be going to government employees very quickly. Whether the 3 weeks turns into longer depends on the works of a new commission that is required to be formed as part of this deal to review all the data and proposals from agencies involved in border security. If the works of this commission lead to a new homeland security budget/bill that does include enhanced (wall) security then most likely the government will remain open past the three week period. But if not, it could be another shutdown ahead. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were much lighter than expected (199K vs est of 220K). This was one of the lowest readings in 50 years...despite furloughed Federal Workers up 15K to a total of 25K. The more closely watched 4 week moving average dropped to 215K. Taking it to the House: December Existing Home Sales were lighter than expected (4.99M units on an annualized basis vs est of 5.25M). But that doesn't mean it was a bad report. Actually, there were many very strong components of the report. The median existing-home price for all housing types in December was $253,600, up 2.9 percent from December 2017 ($246,500). December’s price increase marks the 82nd straight month of year-over-year gains.
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What to Watch Out For This Week: ![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
In yet another encouraging housing report, foreclosure filings are down by 78% from a peak in 2010, hitting its lowest level since 2005. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) lost -26 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly higher compared to the previous week. Consumer Sentiment: The Preliminary University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index was much lower than expected with a 90.7 vs 97.0 reading which is the lowest since October 2016. But this is just a preliminary reading and will be revised. Taking it to the House: Weekly Mortgage Applications improved by big numbers for the second consecutive week. This time by 13.5% led by a big jump of 19.0% in Refinance Applications. Purchase Applications improved by 9.0%. The NAHB Home Builders Housing Market Index was stronger than expected with a 58 vs 56 reading.
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What to Watch Out For This Week: ![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Looking to find a safe place to live where you can still afford a great home? And wouldn't it be nice if there were even fun stuff to do after work and on weekends? Yes, indeed.
What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) lost -7 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move sideways compared to the previous week. The Talking Fed:
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What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Homeowners looking to add personality and individuality to their home are more likely to undertake a do it yourself remodel than hire a professional, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ 2019 Remodeling Impact Report: DIY. The report also shows that cash-strapped millennials are the most likely of any generation to take on a DIY project. Respondents indicated that the number one reason for undertaking a project was to increase functionality and/or livability of their home (35 percent for DIYers and 41 percent for those hiring a professional). That is followed by increasing the home’s beauty and aesthetics (19 percent and 18 percent, respectively) and adding durable and long lasting materials and appliances (15 percent and 18 percent). Projects which were designed to add personality to a home were twice as popular among DIYers than among those hiring a professional (10 percent and 5 percent). What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.00 MBS) gained +23 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the previous week. Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: We had a very strong jobs report! Manufacturing: The December national ISM Manufacturing Index was a big miss. Coming in at only 54.1 vs est of 57.9. While this is still well above 50.0 which is expansionary, it is much lower than expected. ISM Prices Paid dropped to 54.9 vs 60.7 in November showing little to no inflationary pressure on the manufacturing side.
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What to Watch Out For This Week: ![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
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By Debbie Patella at
The costs associated with home-ownership vary across the U.S. The US Census Bureau recently released statistics from the 2017 American Community Survey, an annual program that asks millions of Americans each year about several social, economic, and demographic attributes. The Bureau publishes figures for each of the 50 states and Washington DC. Using Census information, Insider, Inc has compiled how much the average homeowner pays each month in each state to own a home. Those median monthly costs vary widely across the states and DC. On the lower end are states in Appalachia like West Virginia, with a median homeowner cost of $984, and Arkansas, at $1,025. Coastal states like California, Hawaii, and New Jersey are on the higher end of the scale, and Washington, DC's median homeowner cost of $2,432 was the highest in the country. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +20 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the previous week. Manufacturing: The December Chicago PMI reading was very robust and was much stronger than market expectations (65.4 vs est of 62.0). Any reading above 50 is expansionary and this is yet another reading above 60.0 which is very, very strong and shows that there is no slow down in manufacturing growth. |
What to Watch Out For This Week: ![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
A man who illegally demolished a San Francisco house designed by modernist architect Richard Neutra was ordered this week to rebuild it exactly as it was. Johnston purchased the 1936 residence, known as the Largent House, in 2017 for $1.7 million. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +19 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the previous week. Inflation Nation: The Fed's main inflation gauge Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) for November YOY matched expectations with a 1.8% reading which is back below the 2.0% pace in October. The Core (ex food and energy) YOY matched expectations with a 1.9% rate but that was an increase over October's pace of 1.8%. Spending was way up. Personal Spending MOM hit 0.4% vs est of 0.3%, however October was revised upward significantly from 0.6% to 0.8%. Personal Income looked flat but did see a small 0.1% gain. Central Bank Palooza: Russia raised their rates 1/4 point, the U.S. raised their rates 1/4 point. Japan (number 3 economy), kept their main interest rate at -0.1% and Great Brittan (number 5 economy), kept their main interest rate at 0.75%. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Housing juggernaut, Fannie Mae says that unlike the past two years that were mostly a seller's market, 2019 is looking to be a more balanced market. The housing market should see stability in 2019 as a moderation in higher home prices combined with continued strength in the labor market according to Fannie Mae. "We expect full-year 2018 economic growth to come in at 3.1% – an expansion high – before slowing markedly to 2.3% in 2019 and 1.6% in 2020," said Fannie Mae Chief Economist Doug Duncan. "Fading fiscal policy, worsening net exports, and moderating business investment all contribute to our projection that GDP growth will begin to slow in 2019. Duncan added that there could be some good news ahead for homebuyers, although first-time buyers could still face challenges. “If mortgage rates trend sideways next year, as we anticipate, and home price appreciation continues to moderate, improving affordability should breathe some life into the housing market,” he said. “We also expect residential fixed investment to resume a positive growth trajectory amid continued rising housing starts and stabilizing home sales. However, affordability is likely to remain an industry concern, particularly among first-time homebuyers." What Happened to Rates Last Week? |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) lost -19 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly higher compared to the previous week. Overview: The long bond market was light on volatility as it was on "pause" ahead of the Federal Reserve meeting on December 19th as there is less certainty/consensus over what the Fed will do at that meeting. Overall, our economic data was once again solid but concern over Brexit, France and Trade Wars kept money seeking safe-harbor in U.S. based bonds. Retail Sales: The November data at first glance was just a little stronger than expected, but when you take into account the major upper revisions to October, the month-to-month comparison is actually quite good. The Headline monthly gain was 0.2% vs est of 0.1%. But October was revised upward from 0.8% to 1.1%. When you strip out Autos, the MOM gain was 0.2% vs est of 0.2% but October was revised upward from 0.7% to 1.0%. The Control Group really beat estimates with a 0.9% vs 0.4% expectation. Inflation Nation: The November Consumer Price Index was exactly as expected with the Core (ex food and energy) YOY number hitting 2.2% vs est of 2.2%, and a slight increase from October's 2.1% level. When you look at the Headline PPI YOY, it matched expectations with a 2.2% reading which is much lower than October's 2.5% pace. The Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations rose from 2.2% in November to 2.3% in December. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:
It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
While the millennial home-ownership rate still significantly lags that of previous generations at a similar age, a new study by Aparment List showed that almost 90% would prefer to own than rent.
However, just 4.4% of them plan do so in the next year. But just a little further out, the numbers get quite encouraging for those wishing to do some "Adulting". 15% more plan purchase in 1-2 years and then add another 15% on top of that for plans to purchase 2 to 3 years from now. That puts those planning to purchase a home in 1 to 3 years at 34.4% which is a large number of future homeowners hitting the market. Now, add in another 25% for those that say that they plan to purchase in 3-5 years and now the total in the 1 to 5 year time horizon jumps to 59.4%. But wait there's more....30% said that they would purchase a home in 5 years or more from now.
Among those millennial renters who plan to eventually purchase a home, 71.5 percent cite affordability as a reason that they have yet to do so. Specifically, we find that saving a down payment is the primary financial obstacle keeping millennial renters from purchasing homes, with 61.7 percent of respondents who plan to buy saying that they can’t afford a down payment (maybe they are simply unaware of many low to no down-payment mortgages). Meanwhile, just 29.1 percent say that they can’t afford a monthly mortgage payment.
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +40 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the previous week.
Overview: We had very strong manufacturing data but tame inflation. The bond market made their gains on the back of the Federal Reserve as the top 3 Fed members (Powell, Clarida and Williams) made a point of telling the markets that the Fed's viewpoint is closer to their neutral rate than previously thought. That caused a shift in trader sentiment to expect fewer rate hikes next year.
Jobs, Jobs, Jobs: The latest Bureau of Labor and Statistics released their big jobs report on Friday. Lets look at the Tale of the Tape:
Jobs:
November Non-Farm Payrolls increased by 155K vs est of 200K.
October NFP was revised from 250K down to 237K.
September NFP was revised up from 118K to 119K.
The more closely watched three month rolling average is 170K.
Wages:
Average Hourly Wages are now $27.35 which is a six cent increase.
The MOM Average Hourly Earnings change increased by 0.2% vs est of 0.3%
The YOY Average Hourly Earnings increased by 3.1% vs est of 3.1%
Employment:
The Unemployment Rate is 3.7% which matches expectations.
The Participation Rate is remained at 62.9%.
The November ADP Private Payroll hit the lower end of estimates which ranged from 161K to 195K with a 175K reading. Initial Weekly Jobless Claims were 231K vs est of 220K and even though that is a low number, it is a 6 month high. The Challenger Grey Job Cuts report showed a big drop from 75K down to 53K.
ISM : The ISM Non Manufacturing report was red-hot with a 60.7 reading. The service sector represents more than 2/3 of our economic output. The national ISM Manufacturing Index for November jumped to 59.3 which is the second best reading since 2004. Prices paid dropped though from a 71.6 pace in October down to 60.7 in this release.
The Talking Fed: St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (non voting member in December, but will be a voting member in 2019) and noted "dove" said that the Fed has already "normalized policy" a lot. and that "inflation is low and looks to be stable". He had previously called for the Fed to "pause" raising rates and as a new voter in 2019, the markets are taking his commentary to mean that there will be fewer rate hikes in 2019 than previously expected. NY Fed President John Williams (number 3 at the Fed) said “Given this outlook I describe of strong growth, strong labor market and inflation near our goal - and taking into account all the various risks around the outlook - I do continue to expect that further gradual increases in interest rates will best foster a sustained economic expansion and a sustained achievement of our dual mandate.”
By Debbie Patella at
The maximum conforming loan limit for mortgages being acquired by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be going up in most parts of the country in 2019, the Federal Housing Finance Agency has announced. The Housing and Economic Recovery Act (HERA) requires that the FHFA adjust the baseline conforming loan limit each year to reflect changes in the average US home price. According to the FHFA’s House Price Index (HPI) for the third quarter of 2018, house prices increased an average of 6.9% over the last 12 months. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +39 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the previous week. The Talking Fed: The Minutes from the last FOMC Meeting were released. Here are a couple of key highlights: |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Fewer loans that use real estate as collateral will need an appraisal under a new proposal. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) lost -18 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly higher compared to the previous week. Taking it to the House: October Existing Home Sales beat out estimates with a 5.22M vs 5.20M annualized rate. The median home price moved up again and is now $255,400. Inventory remains VERY tight with only a 4.3 month supply. New Housing Starts basically matched expectations (1.228M vs 1.230M) and Building Permits just edged out estimates (1.263M vs est of 1.260M). While both of these readings look fairly good....the problem is that the strength is in Multi-family which is where you do not want it to be. For example, multi-family units jumped by 10.3 percent to a 363,000 rate but single-family starts slipped by -1.8 percent to an 865,000 rate. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
Real estate auctions, once used for foreclosures and distressed sellers, is moving upmarket. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +65 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move to their lowest levels not seen since October 2nd. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
The newly released National Delinquency Survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) showed that that delinquent mortgage payments were down by 41 basis points compared to a year ago. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) lost just -7 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to remain at their their highest levels of 2018. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
An expanding family often leads to needing more space, but it also means more expenses. That is why there is a growing trend for growing families to seek housing in less-expensive areas to get more. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) lost -50 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move higher compared to the prior week and actually hit their highest levels of 2018. |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
By Debbie Patella at
According to the Real House Price Index released by First American Financial, consumers are still in a strong position to purchase a home but are getting squeezed on just how much home they can afford. Real house prices increased 0.6% between July and August, while real house prices increased 11.3% year over year. Consumer house-buying power, how much one can buy based on changes in income and interest rates, decreased 0.2% between July and August and declined 4.7% year over year. What Happened to Rates Last Week?![]() |
Mortgage backed securities (FNMA 4.50 MBS) gained +35 basis points (BPS) from last Friday's close which caused fixed mortgage rates to move slightly lower compared to the prior week.. GDP: We got our first look at the 3rd QTR GDP (will be revised several times) and it was basically inline with estimates (3.5% vs est of 3.3%). Estimates on Monday hovered in the 3.1 to 3.2 range and have been gradually moved upward by today to the 3.3 to 3.4 range. Consumer Spending was the major driver and that is encouraging. The next biggest driver was government spending. The only weak spot was a pull back in business investment. Central Bank Palooza: The European Central Bank kept their main interest rate at 0.0% and their deposit rate at -0.4% which was widely expected. The unknown was what ECB President Draghi would say about Italy and the end of QE. During his press conference, he did not have any major "bombshells". He did say that they have not been purchasing Greek bonds and have been purchasing Italian bonds. He cited Brexit and Italy as key risk areas but that risks to growth in the EU were "broadly balanced". |
What to Watch Out For This Week:![]() The above are the major economic reports that will hit the market this week. They each have the ability to affect the pricing of Mortgage Backed Securities and therefore, interest rates for Government and Conventional mortgages. I will be watching these reports closely for you and let you know if there are any big surprises. It is virtually impossible for you to keep track of what is going on with the economy and other events that can impact the housing and mortgage markets. Just leave it to me, I monitor the live trading of Mortgage Backed Securities which are the only thing government and conventional mortgage rates are based upon. |
Gold Canyon Mortgage Blog